Flash in the iPad

Sorry this is a double post.  Comments should go here:

Two stories are getting some airtime today.  One has NPR and the WSJ building special iPad versions of their websites without Flash (remember this was one of Steve Jobs requests last month when he visited the Journal?)  The sites will be basically the same but the Flash bits will be replaced largely by HTML5 elements.

Some of you might be thinking: Why not just build websites without Flash?  Why keep the Flash versions around at all?

The Motley Fool's Eric Jhonsa responds that Flash isn't going anywhere soon.  Whether you hate Flash or you love it, there are some realities that will keep Flash developers around for years to come.

The biggest issue is Internet Explorer.  

Internet Explorer still accounts for close to 60% of all Web browsing and it can't properly render HTML5.  Interestingly, Internet Explorer 9 was previewed today and it apparently is going to be able to do HTML5.  But the IE crowd aren't the "quick-to-update" types.  In fact, 21% of Web users (Net Applications latest study) use 2001's IE6.  

It will be along time before Apple's iProducts reach 20% of Web users — though, as an advertiser, would you rather reach the 20% of people who haven't updated their browser in 10 years or the ones that are on the best equipment out there?

So if you want to build video or interaction into a site, you basically have three choices: 

1. Build an HTML5 version that will work on Apple's gadgets and Macs (<10% of the world) and Firefox, Chrome and Safari on PC and Linux (25% more) and Webkit mobile devices (<5%) .  Your website has a chance to work on <40% of browsers

2. Build a Flash version of the site. >95% of browsers use Flash.  Even on Macs with ClicktoFlash, you can still view things like Hulu if you so choose.

3.  Build two versions of the site.  One for the 95% who don't mind using Flash.  Another for the influential 5% that use Apple's iProducts.  

Remember, not everyone has the resources to build two versions of their website.

Jhonsa also puts forth some other sobering realities:

1. HTML5 is a work in progress. HTML5 represents a complex new technology standard, and history shows that it always takes a long time to develop such standards... and then some additional time to work out all of their bugs so that users have a quality experience. The many years that it took for technologies such as Java and XML to be fully embraced by developers, in spite of their clear benefits, bears this out. While the first draft of the HTML5 standard was completed in early 2008, the standards body isn't expected to give it a full stamp of approval for web use until 2012. Until then, expect the technology to be implemented piecemeal.
2. Licensing issues remain thorny. YouTube, with much fanfare, recently began giving users the option to view some clips in HTML5 instead of Flash. But not only does this feature have some big limitations – videos with embedded ads aren't supported, for example – and the only browsers it supports are Apple's Safari and Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) Chrome. Why? Because they're the only browsers to have licensed the encoding technology that YouTube's HTML5 clips are based on. If you're using Firefox, or Internet Explorer without a Chrome plug-in installed, you're out of luck. Throw in Mozilla's refusal to license the encoding technology used in YouTube's HTML5 clips for its popular Firefox browser, apparently based on principle, and this problem could take a while to resolve itself.

These two issues will iron themselves out over time as HTML5 matures.  But the message is the same.  For people who are making Websites now or in the next few years, the reality is that companies will continue to build websites in Flash.