Mobile app rainbow: Apple's App Store leads to a pot of gold

Apple’s got a gold mine, and it fits inside your pocket - that’s right, the company’s App Store may win its share of criticism for the relatively difficult path most users have to take to find those apps which don’t make the leader boards, but the mobile app opportunity is much bigger than we’ve seen so far.

Don’t believe us? Oh, ye of little faith, it’s not us who are making these claims but the analysts (who get paid to speculate, don’t you know), in this case the data comes from Screen Digest’s Mobile Intelligence Service, who predict revenues from mobile applications will double in the next four years to reach €100 billion (c.$143.5 billion) by the end of 2013. And we have the seekers at Seeking Alpha to thank for this data.

€8.6 billion of this will be generated by rich media content services such as mobile TV, video, games and music, a growth of 50% compared to the end of 2009, ScreenDigest says.

Now we know Apple currently dominates the App Store gold machine, and while many believe the company creates the best solutions, there are competitors and they will develop their markets too - and don’t neglect the potential challenge/growth of Google’s Android platform.

With a changing competitive landscape, no surprise Screen Digest expects Apple’s share of the market to decline relative to the competition - but anticipates the App Store will generate €1.3 bullion by the end of 2013 from 7 billion downloads.

NB: We’re thinking the prediction seems on the low side, given Apple had already shifted “well over” two billion apps as of November 4 2009.

The increased level of competition means a bevy of platform choices for developers: Apple, Google, Nokia, Samsung, Microsoft (MSFT), Vodafone, RIM, Palm and Orange will all be offering stores, along with smaller operators. (We suspect success will come to those stores offering the best development tools).

The analysts also predict revenues from mobile music services such as rdio or Spotify will grow by 25% in the next four years, reaching €3.2 billion by the end of 2013 “despite a substantial decline in ringtone sales.”

Revenues from mobile games sold through operators’ portals and Apple’s App Store are expected to grow by 40% in the next four years, reaching €2.8 billion by the end of 2013.