Ok i see where you're coming from and that does make sense, ish. Fact is though the inventory is cleared weeks in advance. Consider a WWDC introduction and lag time for roll out, as predicted by most analysts, 27th June buy date. We have nearly two months of product absence. Isn't that a bit extreme just for public opinion? One more thing, i'd be surprised if apple needed to spur 3G sales what with all their new partners and the fact some of us Europeans might actually buy this one

1) clear inventory
2) Eliminate any chances of 14 day returns of previous generation (and the people slightly over 14 days that bitch that they still want an exchange)
3) raise demand with a pre-announced launch date like last year's release

 Yes, I agree it's clearly part of a deliberate plan to generate hype and demand for the new iPhone in the coming weeks before the product's official announcement and release.

But you're portraying only half the picture here.  It's not just about low stock or no stock levels on current models.  Consider all the "coming in May, coming in weeks" type statements from various celcos around the world and the "leaked" AT&T memos, all the while Apple remaining silent and you start to see a brilliantly orchestrated plan by Apple to pent up demand and get a lot of media hype and coverage about the device before it's even announced.

I think the same thing applies with the AT&T free wireless hotspot for iPhone users and the infamous "iPhone Black" shenanigans over the last week or two.  It's a deliberate disinformation campaign to set the blogosphere on fire with talk about the iPhone.  What company other than Apple can have so much attention over vaporware months and months before it's release.  

Brilliant!

DistortedLoop nailed it! "..deliberate disinformation campaign"

Apple has been doing this for years and works every time. I can't understand why most people think that companies like AT&T and Apple make mistakes on their web pages. Nothing goes up on a page that isn't right.

The tongues are wagging at supersonic speed and Apple is loving it.

Of course that's what they're doing. It was so obvious it never crossed my mind! Apple has such a tight control over their inventory levels they would never let the supply chain run out of product unless it was deliberate. With no news of component shortages this has to be a calculated move. Hopefully they've shifted all the manufacturing lines to cranking out G3 versions so they can meet the demand for these phones when they're released. It appears that every country in the world is going to be shipping them.

In the US and the UK, Apple is likely to move from a non-subsidized model to a subsidized model.

Imagine this.

On Monday a 2.5G 8GB iPhone costs 269UKP
On Tuesday a 3G 16GB iPhone costs 99UKP with a contract.

People would be very angry.

Waiting a month? I can see waiting 14 days for those disgruntled customers, but a whole month? To me, that sounds like arrogance on Apple's part. That's a long time to keep sales off the books.

Even if Apple keeps the supply chain dry for a month, I'm sure you'll still have disgruntled customers who were able to and bought an iPhone on May 1st. What will Apple say to them? If someone did recently buy an iPhone, I'd return it!

Either way, Apple will probably give their reasoning when the finally do release it. I'll be content just to wait for WWDC now.

I think its a combination of Apple planning to be out of stock shortly before the 3g release AND the existing inventory selling out sooner than anticipated. Apple has historically had problems with inventory forecasting, though they have been much better the past few years. I would think the forecasting would be much more difficult when working with multiple carriers who may "panic" over existing inventories and begin discounting prices a touch too soon. The result: a worldwide shortage somewhat earlier than planned.

I was at an Apple Store yesterday; one of the salespeople asked me whether I had any questions. I said that I did, but that I knew that she couldn't answer it.

She asked me to ask her anyway, so I asked, "When will the new iPhone be out?" She replied "Next month." I was a bit astonished and asked her whether that was her opinion or whether it was official. She said it was official, and that it had officially been announced.

I suspect that she didn't realize that she wasn't supposed to tell customers, and that the announcement was strictly internal.

RE: "As such, I think the current lack of availability is deliberately designed to minimize complaints and maximize demand."

What else should Apple do? Should it keep manufacturing a device at a high pace that is about discontinued and replace with an updated version? That would be STUPID. Apple made mistakes like this many years ago. Apple even pre-announced products years ago, and it sales ground to a halt while inventory piled up.

Slowing manufacture of a soon to be released item is good for everyone involved. Apple keeps its soon to be discontinued device inventory low, the customers who buy MUST have the current version, for whatever reason, and manufacture of the new device is slowing ramping up.

BTW, the 3G phone won't reach the entire world all at once. The rollout will have to be inventory constrained until manufacturing catches up with demand. I have co-workers in New York that are buying the CURRENT iPhone to send to family overseas. Those people may not seen the 3G iphone for a long time. Yet, they would rather buy an about to be discontinued iPhone than buy another manufacturer's phone and use the old iPhone until the 3G version arrives.

Also: NOT EVERYONE HAS TO HAVE THE 3G VERSION. SOME PEOPLE CAN LIVE WITH THE CURRENT VERSION!

I think you're right to a point. But I don't think it is some diabolical master plan... I think they looked at supplies running low and decided waiting for the next model was the right thing to do for customers vs. a big production run of the current model.

And since Apple accounts for these on a subscription basis, the financial effects are smoothed out over 2 years. So there's none of the usual financial pressure to "make the current quarter" (by loading customers up on soon to be relaced models).

I also think Apple is telling the truth when they say demand is greater than expected. Clearly they expected to make their 10M phone number mainly from new model(s) in the second half.

An advantage Apple has is that its products are distinct. A customer wanting an iphone will not only wait (a bit) for it, but would much rather Apple hold back and deliver the new improved model..

And the more it is the case that exciting things are about to be announced, the more it is right for customers to not unload a load of 1st gen phones on them.

And I feel like a genius... having secured by WWDC ticket after a several year hiatus. I feel the warm glow of the RDF already. =)

If you'd read transcript of Apple's CC you'd know that it's "official" and that new iphone should be out late June.

Another reason is that sales of the "gray market iPhones" have been very interesting up to now for Apple (i.e. iPhones bought in the US and then unlocked to work in any country).
In order to minimize this type of sales and "gray market importers" they deliberately are running out of stock.

So that the next generation phone will be the only version available in all markets, under the new contracts with carriers.

I think about it like an iPhone TAKE 2 in terms of strategy. They are whiping clean inventory to start anew.

Just my thought