Apple, RIM, Android to dominate 2010 handset market?

Jonny Evans
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December 16, 2009
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This may already be apparent to any iPhone user, but it seems the age of generic single-purpose mobile phones is done and we’re entering the era of the smartphone - at least according to Informa.

The UK research firm this morning began discussing its latest analysis for the handset market in 2010, predicting smartphones such as the iPhone and BlackBerry will account for up to 55 percent of the total market value for the handset market next year.

Principal analyst Malik Kamal-Saadi notes: "As demand for mid-tier handsets declines, competition in the smartphone segment is set to intensify.”

Sales of smartphones are expected to grow year-on-year by 33.5% in 2009--even as the overall handset market declined--and by 36% in 2010 in volume terms, Informa said.

Smartphones will make up 27 percent of the total number of handsets sold next year, but will account for 64 percent of market profits on account of their higher average selling price, he predicts.

Informa also see Apple, RIM and others posing increasing challenge to incumbent manufacturers including Nokia and Samsung, with new challengers offering more developed operating systems for their advanced mobile devices.

Next year will see incumbent manufacturers turn to Google’s Android OS as they try to see off these fresh challenges, posing the potential of transformation in the smartphone biz, potentially creating new mobile handset industry leaders, Informa predicts.

That the battle is currently between Apple and Research In Motion is underlined within data contained in a second report - Fierce Developer reveals that around 36 million US consumers own a smartphone, with 8,970,049 of these using an iPhone, compared to 14,963,238 using RIM BlackBerry devices as of October 2009. Microsoft-powered devices accounted for 7,131,797 smartphones while Google - still at the early stage of its power play, pulled in just over one million users, behind Palm and Symbian.

Comments (3)

BTW (not verified) | December 16, 2009 - 10:07pm

Apple had it right with one form factor.  They have had some bumps even with that.  The original iPhone users are now feeling a bit left out on features and certain apps that take advantage of new hardware enhancements.  If Apple can keep that obsolence feeling at 2-3 years after purchase then they'll continue to dominate.


 


RIM has to rewrite their OS from the ground up as Microsoft is with WinMo 7.  I'm a RIM user so even though I love their products they are getting left behind a bit in the mobile OS wars.  2010 will be their make or break year.  If they don't release a more modern OS in 2010 then their marketshare will fall hard.


 


Android is fragmented with different form factors and several vendors utilizing multiple iterations of the OS that it might just collapse on itself.  Either that or really have no significant leader from any of its supporters.  Google entering with their own branded phone may just be that leader.  Android has a lot of growing-up to do.


 


Palm will be purchased next year by either RIM or Nokia.  Hopefully the latter of the two.  Their WebOS has much potential but it is too late to save the company.

Co Enzyme (not verified) | December 16, 2009 - 11:09pm

Hi,

As far as i know Apple has a current market capitalization of about $165 billion (Intel's is about $110 billion). Two heavyweights with two competing visions of small devices. Will one of the big battlegrounds of the future be Apple tablets versus Intel-based tablets? Or--perish the thought--an Apple Netbook using an Apple chip instead of an Intel Atom? It's tantalizing to speculate.

iphonerulez (not verified) | December 17, 2009 - 5:28am

I would think it would be difficult for Apple to keep ahead of it's competitors with only one iPhone size factor.  I don't think Apple would change the standard iPhone dimensions due to the fact there are so many aftermarket accessories for it.  Apple is going to have to keep cramming more features in such a slim size and they may find it costly to do so.  I don't think that Apple needs to put 8MP cameras and a bigger screen on an iPhone, but they should really get a larger battery in the iPhone for longer use between recharges.  I imagine that Apple will continue to shrink the components down to add more features in the same dimensions for the next couple of years, at least.  I'm not sure if users demand extra features, but the industry is going to make a big thing out of it if the iPhone doesn't keep pace with its peers with a long feature list.