Android to beat iPhone by 2012, Gartner analysts claim
Analysts at Gartner predict Android will account for 14 percent of the global smartphone market by 2012, beating the iPhone into third place (13.7%) behind Symbian with 39 percent of the market.
These predictions mean departure of Google boss Eric Schmidt from Apple’s board was mandatory. Sure, he may have reclused his seat during iPhone discussions, but his company has pushed out a mobile OS that analysts believe will beat Apple’s iPhone.
Computerworld reports the analysis that Android will fully exploit Google’s network-based (“Cloud”) services, and that Google will continually - and rapidly - improve its mobile OS.
Additional factors designed to give Android a market edge include its open nature, which attracts developers, and its multi-device strategy, which means Android-powered devices from multiple manufactuers will widen the market for the smartphones. 2010 could see as many as 40 models of Android phone ship.
Another advantage is Google’s use of multiple user interface paradigms. While Apple focuses on applications, Symbian and WinMob focus on tasks and communications. And Google combines a little of both interface ideologies.
Android - and Apple - seem set to take market share from Palm and RIM, the analysts suggest, offering the following global market share break down for 2012:
- Symbian: 203 million handsets, 39 percent of the market;
- Google Android: 76 million handsets, 14.5 percent of the market;
- Apple iPhone OS: 71.5 million handsets, 13.7 percent of the market;
- Windows Mobile: 66.8 million handsets, 12.8 percent of the market;
- RIM BlackBerry OS: 65.25 million handsets, 12.5 percent of the market;
- Linux variants: 28 million handsets, 5.4 percent of the market;
- Palm webOS: 11 million handsets, 2.1 percent of the market.
Android currently runs on just 2 percent of all smartphones, Gartner claims.
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Comments (27)
but in 2010 will see an iPhone family
He took his seat off to another room far away from the meeting, and acted like a hermit? ;)
iphone is for consumers.
its trendy.like ipod.
android is for geeks.enthusiasts.professionals?
like linux.
emotion beats logic when it comes to selling
...only in America.
If you are going to attempt a witty quip, at least supply some wit.
Perhaps Android phone OS will eclipse iphone Mac OSX OS.... but I don't think thats the whole story. Analysts repeatedly get Apple wrong WRT sales and profit motives. I believe Apple wants to hold true to its design ideals in offering products and expects a "reasonable" return on providing such solutions to customers. Sure, Android may ultimately have higher market presence, but it will likely be on an array of low cost handset hardware of varying quality etc,etc: some good, some bad. Apple will, like in its Mac sales, maintain its quality standing to protect profit margins and provide both returns to shareholders as well as ongoing product/service innovation that leads the market where others routinely fail to live up to customer expectations.
So dos Apple want World Domination - No - it just wants to be the leading company it its product/service segments in design, innovation, customer satisfaction and thus profitability.
The iPhone is designed for how women communicate.
Women love their iPhones.
Women are very brand loyal and won't change to Android.
Ho ho, men love their iPhones too!
First mob with a keyboard I could use properly.
Don't call them ho's....
...will bring the end of the world, hey, the Mayans* had it right!
*Mayans never said the world will end in 2012, that is just when their calendar ends, much like the Julian Calendar ends on December 31st each year.
Erik Von Daniken (Chariots of the Gods?) says the aliens that visited the Mayans will return on Dec 24, 2011, according to Mayan writings. Maybe they use the Android phone and will pass 'em out to everyone ...
That's the only way this is going to happen!
Why is it that these analysts (and I use that term loosly) keep making these wild predictions with blatantly misleading numbers?
It seems like someone has got stocks or shares in HTC or another Android company.
Also note that he predicts Apple to be stagnant pretty much market share wise. But windows mobile to still be a big player.
Obviously he wrote this before they released win mob 6.5.
Then there is the other prediction that Android will be on more than 20 handsets. What he fails to mention is the issues of app comparability once people start to stray from a basic platform design. Like they have atm.
But only time will tell, not some analyst.
Agree with previous comment about Apple not necessarily wanting to dominate the market. If Apple makes a profit on the iPhone while Android makes diddly for Google, I'm not sure Apple/Steve Jobs cares. They want to make good UI experience products while making a good profit.
A huge game changer would be the iPhone ditching the carrier, I'd like to see analysts predict results to that
what if the iPhone ditched the carrier. Can they analyze that?
iPhone has ditched "the carrier". In many countries there are multi to choose from.
US is a special case, because only ATT has a good GSM network.
ATT does NOT have a good GSM network.
These predictions get a lot of attention, and the get people stirred up, but they're meaningless. Gartner has NO idea what either of those platforms will look like in 2012. Consider that, before the first android phone came out, you'd have predicted a lot more market penetration than the thing has actually enjoyed. Why didn't it do better? Because people looked at the actual implementation and said ”Meh.“
This can hold true for other aspects as well.
Best apps not the most.
Best customers not the most.
Etc.
I guess we can all become millionaires with this Gartner prediction....just invest $25,000 now and you've got it made for the rest of your life....
This is so silly that I can't believe they would make such a long shot prediction. I wonder if they could predict interest rates in 2012 or who will be elected President that year?
Take it with a grain of salt, thats all that its worth.
This would be a really bad prediction to invest any money into.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't having a wide varying body of phones hurt android development. Every article proclaiming the Apple App Store references the ease of app development for developers who only have to write the code for one phone. Im my opinion, 40 phones would severely slow down app development on the android platform.
Andrew Morinelli
Yeah, that will happen, too. I think someone is trying to boost the Google stock he just bought!
Like others said, Android will be for tech enthusiasts, just like Linux. I don't think it will dominate. The iPhone will continue to be much more polished.
I am a HUGE Linux fan, and am very curious about an Android phone. But my 12 plus years interest in Linux led me to Apple, OSX, and the iPhone. It is the smooth, polished Unix I wanted.
how many andriod phones have sold so far? I think this guy is talking out his....
Who cares, Apple isn't going to be the volume leader, yet im betting their profit margin is still going to be exceptional. They don't cater to the low end, they are keeping the platform locked and they will be the ones making the phones. Its the same old "windows has 80% of the market blah blah blah". If Apple wanted a larger slice of the pie, they would license the OS(both OSX and mobile OSX). Thats not going to happen though, they want to control the user experience to ensure high quality on any product that has their name on it with few exceptions.(damn you motorola rokr)
If Apple Cannot get its Ties to ATT severed and offer iPhones on other networks and do it soon it will fall quickly into 3rd-4th place in the next few years.
No way will there be 65.25 million Blackberry handsets in 2012.
It will be 65.2498 million max.