Gene Munster talks $1.2 Billion Apple tablet

Seth Weintraub
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August 07, 2009
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Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster issued another guestimate report today on Apple's forthcoming Tablet, somewhat hedging his earlier 2010 forecasts to late 2009/early 2010.  

He even went out and had a computer-generated rendering of what he envisions the tablet looking like.  (Above right).  This isn't unlike many other Apple Tablet renderings we've seen.

He also laid out these points:

  • It will  be similar to an iPod touch, only larger, capable of running most of the 70,000 applications on the iPhone App Store plus a new category of apps designed for the bigger screen.
  • Will be used primarily for Web surfing, e-mail, and digital media, competing with netbooks without being a netbook.
  • Will be priced between an iPhone and a MacBook — between $500 and $700.
  • Is likely to include a 3G cellular modem and could be subsidized by a carrier — either AT&T (T) or Verizon (VZ).
  • Will sell better than Apple TV did its first year (1.2 million units).
  • Could in fact sell 2 million units at $600 each to generate $1.2 billion and add about 3% to Apple’s revenue stream in calendar 2010.

“Last week we spoke with an Asian component supplier that has received orders from Apple for a touch-screen device to be fulfilled by late [calendar year] 09,” he writes. “This data point underscores our thesis that a tablet will likely launch in early [2010].”

Comments (23)

Olternaut (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 6:27am

*continues to giggle like a school girl* :D

weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!111 It's not long now is it?
So who said the tablet wasn't coming again?

Booyaaaaaa

Frustrated (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 6:30am

God, I hope all these analysts and 3D designers mocking-up their ideas are totally wrong. Unless Apple pulls some sort of rabbit out of a hat with the form factor, it makes NO SENSE to scale-up the iPhone form factor. I can't picture Steve J letting that happen. How do you sit it on your lap or tray-table on a plane...? (just for example). I really hope Apple proves 'em all wrong with a radically different design. Who know? *I* may be wrong.

Tom (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 7:50am

I could so use such a device. I often have to walk around in my office with my laptop in the hand, but that sucks. It's too heaviy, it's hard to hold with the keyboard and the trackpad and the display. Such a large iPod would be much more convenient! I want it!

the Cappy (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 9:16am

I agree with walking around with laptop in hand being inconvenient.

But there's the competing thing where you finally sit down and need to totally blast out text.

So much depends...

There's so much human-to-computer bandwidth lost with a tablet. Nifty things are introduced by that form factor, but important things are lost as well.

The question is: can Apple mitigate this loss of input bandwidth?? Or do they define the tablet for a specific use, such that they tell us it's not "for" such tasks. THAT would be a pity.

Maxxreps (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 6:47am

All indications are this device (at least initially) will be data only? Could Apple release a device linked with Verizon 3G cellular that includes voice without violating the AT&T contract? I'm now month to month with my old iPhone and counting the days until I have the ability to take this functionality to a real cellular carrier. I am a home health clinician and could never return to the pre-iPhone days, but would gladly switch to a tablet (as long as it had voice) if I could only ditch AT&T!!!!!!!

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 8:37am

Why would Apple suddenly switch to Verzizon? They've got 20 million iPhone customers in the US tied into a contract that won't break their contract to buy the new tablet. They aren't going to set themselves up for a new product launch that millions of people can't buy.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 3:45pm

Because AT&T has consistently been unable to cash the checks Apple's been trying to write. Still no MMS or tethering, piss poor network quality, and they've about maximized their growth in the areas where AT&T is available. If they released a product on VZ they'd have access to consumers in the entire country and a much better network. The only "if" i see is Verizon's willingness to let Apple control their own updates and software distribution, because RIM and Storm users know how horrible that's been.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 6:59am

And there was me thinking the tablets would cost $1,200,000,000 each.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 7:14am

I'm still trying to find the need that a 10" iPod Touch would address.

Tom (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 7:57am

If you're on the road a lot and just need Internet, e-mail and light office, such a device would be perfect. This works well on the iPhone, too, but sometimes a bigger screen would be better. And for browsing you usually don't need a "real" keyboard. I travel a lot in trains. Having such a device, I could watch movies on it in a decent size. Yes, I can do this on a laptop, too, but a laptop is x times heavier and thicker. At work, I often have to walk around with a laptop in my hands to check WiFi coverage. Such a device would be better, because it's lighter and thinner and easier to carry around. Generally, all areas where it is convenient to carry around a small computer and when you want to have a free hand, this would be cool. There are thousands of possible uses. Only because you don't find any for yourself, it doesn't mean there aren't any.

Valan (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 3:32pm

People need a phone and get one that can also play movies, browse the internet, play music and software. However, the phone is the killer app. Same with the iPod Touch. Music is the killer app.

Now what is the killer app for the 10" iPod Touch/iPhone?

Michael Braun (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 7:59am

I think it will be good for several groups:
1. Commuters who want to get things done while on a bus or train, but don't have a need to haul their laptop around.
2. Middle and high school students who want their own computer, but don't have the money or whose parents won't buy a computer for them.
3. People looking for computing mobility, but who aren't interested in owning a laptop and desktop (lots of people still have desktops).

If this product does come out, and if it is truly good and function, I will recommend it to anyone who has just a desktop computer. It seems like it could be the perfect compromise between the portability of an iPod Touch or iPhone and the power of a laptop.

That said, it absolutely must have a way to use a full keyboard - USB or bluetooth.

Allanf (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 11:30am

Just wondering if $1.2 Billion in sales is too conservative.

I will be on-line on Day One to order the iTablet or iPad or whatever it is called. As relatively small as it is, i use my iPhone at night in bed and also in while traveling, etc. to catch up on the day's news like tweets from 9to5Mac, etc. and, yes, play games. It takes work to read the smaller print and most of the tweets have links to blogs, etc. and a 10" screen would make these much easier to read. The iTablet would be a God send for me.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 7:49am

the screen spills over the home button. FAIL.

sjs (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 8:10am

"I'm still trying to find the need that a 10" iPod Touch would address."

Picture something that is similar in width and length to a netbook, but:
--half the thickness
--half the weight
--faster
--with Apple quality design and software.

I have NO problem figuring out how that will sell like crazy. Everyone who already uses a notebook as their primary computer will bypass this new device. Everyone who has a desktop and can't figure out why they really need a notebook will understand immediately the advantages of the new device.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 8:39am

A kick stand on the back (like Apple keyboards had years ago) would tip the tablet up for easier viewing when set on a desk top. I would also expect some sort of handle, or gripping area. Something this large can't be held in one hand while touch with the other, without fingers of the holding hand interacting withe the touch screen. Perhaps the rear kickstand would also be a sleeve for the support hand.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 8:47am

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Must be based on Mac OS X and NOT on the limited OS X (iPhone OS). Video-out port. For Keynote and PowerPoint presentations.

quandmeme (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 9:03am

I make this comment on every tablet rumor I guess, but I covet.

There is no way I would buy a iPod touch slate; I can't imagine my not buying an OSX slate at this price.

My data needs are met by my iPhone, so I'm not turned on by another wireless contract. I am looking forward to how the kickstand + keyboard will work.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 12:01pm

I sure wouldn't buy an iTouchOS device for the target price, unless there is a seamless way to enter data (usb ok, but bluetooth preferred).

However, I would buy a cripped (no mouse/keyboard) device if it was priced closer to an ebook reader (ie $300-500). I am not completely sold on e-ink, but netbook and iphone form factors are both uncompelling for reading material compared to Kindle/Sony ereader.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 10:40am

Don't forget - you could connect it to an external keyboard back at your desk. Apple sells one, don't you know?

What's missing in all the mockups is the means to prop the tablet up so you can use it like a monitor when connected to said keyboard.

Yo Daddy (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 11:15am

As older patents have shown. The outer casing of the iMac will be your 18" - 24" doc station. While the smaller form factors 14, 12, 10 can all be part of a package deal that sync as musical keyboard, touch keyboard, dj station etc. You'll have your low end large iPod and a high end portable iMac.

9to5Mac Noob (not verified) | August 07, 2009 - 1:04pm

Just remember that Gene Munster is the least accurate of all the Apple analysts.

milowerx (not verified) | August 08, 2009 - 12:20pm

I don't understand why anyone would want this honestly. What's the point? So you're really just paying extra to have a large iPod. It won't load real apps so it's never going to be a real computer. I suppose it will be cool in some ways but I can't see this getting widespread use. It's definitely a niche device. You'll still need a case for it and you'll need cords for it because it's larger and if it has some sort of external keyboard you'll need to carry that too. All said and done you're basically carrying the weight of a laptop AND it can't run standard apps. To say that this would be easier to carry around than a full laptop is kinda silly, I mean what's the real weight issue here? A pound or so? Is that really going to hurt your arm that much quicker?

Now if they made it so it had a stylus or they made it so it interfaces with a real computer then maybe it would be a cool device to have. As it is it's really nothing more than an expensive toy. You cant go jogging with it, you most likely wouldn't take it to the beach with you, you can't do much work with it except writing and only then with a desk in fornt of you because of the missing keyboard. Can any one see themselves trying to tick out an email on the touch screen with their thumbs on a 10" device?