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Apple TV a "billion dollar business", analyst claimsFri, 03/14/2008 - 10:26 — Andy Space
Apple TV won't be a hobby for much longer should Apple move to introduce support for digital video recording and a TV tuner, at least according to one analyst.American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu notes Apple's recently disclosed patent filing which covered a way to add DVR features to the Apple TV. Wu also notes Apple plans to implement Blu-ray support in future Macs.
"(Following) Recent filings by Apple at the US Patent and Trademark Office, it appears that DVR (digital video recorder) and TV tuner functionality will finally make their way onto a future version of AppleTV with the ability to dock an iPod and/or iPhone and to use as a remote control," observed Wu,
The analyst suggests these new features could turn up as early as the next iteration of Apple's "hobby" product. Wu writes that the addition of such features would "turn Apple TV into a real business".
Looking at the bottom line, the analyst notes the device is offering a fractional percent blip to company revenue, he reckons this to be around 0.3-0.4 per cent of revenue or $100-125 million annually. "We believe adding the ability to watch and record live TV could turn this into a billion dollar, if not multi-billion dollar business," he notes.
"We (as well as many others) have been clamoring for DVR and/or TV tuner capabilities since the introduction of AppleTV 1.0 in January 2007 and even AppleTV 2.0 with movie rentals in January 2008. We are pleased to see Apple listening to customers similar to what it has done with iPhone, with adding native access to Exchange server," the analyst then explains.
The analyst believes the cost of hardware for such features would only come to "about $12-15", but suggests hard drive size may need to be increased.
Apple CEO Steve Jobs recently declared his company to be "as proud of the things we don't ship as those we do". so a patent filing doesn't signify a definitely shipping product.
The analyst notes this, writing: "We would like to note that there have been filings in the past that have not come to fruition - yet. Oneexample is Bluetooth stereo headsets which have yet to ship but, we believe will at some point as cost of components declines."
The analyst also claims his sources describe Sony as having reached final discussions with Apple and Microsoft with a view to bringing Blu-ray to Macs and the Xbox 360.
"While near-term trends look difficult with a looming recession and a slow-down in consumer spending, we continue to believe Apple is well-positioned to weather the storm better than most with its strong fundamentals," the analyst concludes.
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I wanna know how long....
I wanna know how long.... should I buy an apple tv now? ....or wait? I guess thats the question with all apple products. hmmmm...
How long
Well i bought one last year. I'm happy with it, even though there's no film rental where I am yet. It's a nice addition, though a luxury item, in truth, right now.
If the features interest you now, buy it now, but if (like me) you think you only have the cash for one purchase of the device in the next 18 months, then yeah, hold fire, as I can't imagine Apple will make us wait beyond this time next year. And as it's a luxury right now, you may be able to live without it.
Though I love mine, so that's confusing, isn't it?
EyeTV
Maybe Apple should acquire EyeTV and build their awesome DVR into the Apple TV - EyeTV already has Export to Apple TV functionality. That would be sweet.
An Eye-TV questionnaire
An Eye-TV questionnaire popped up on my screen recently. It was basically asking me how likely I'd be to encourage friends to get one, and what would improve on that.
I love the product and am using it to form a system that isn't used for anything but TV (both off-air and the torrent variety). I would not be surprised to see them work with Apple. These are the same folks that developed Toast.
I like to be able to keep entire seasons of shows archived, which is why I just added another hard drive (terabyte at that). I'm also recompressing my recordings to about 1 GB per hour episode (which is 40 minutes or so after ads are removed to save space).
While the Apple-TV could probably be built slightly faster to cope with 1080i stream playback, it would really need to be at least on par with the Core 2 Duo™ laptops and iMacs to be tolerable for recompression. Also, considering that many would like far more storage that laptop-style drives permit, one would need a bigger footprint device. If external drives are used, having eSATA ports would make that far less painful. Copying episodes, or extracting them minus ads, goes vastly faster when done between two drives. And in that case, bigger faster drives, and (e)SATA instead of USB / ATA alternatives, is much faster. I seem to be able to copy about 1 GB per minute over USB, closer to 4 or 5 over SATA. SATA may do even better than that with drives having higher sustained transfer rates.
What this boils down to is a PVR with some editing and recompression features really begs for the power of a full Mac system (and then some). Perhaps as prices and availability of 45 nm CPUs fall, such capabilities can become cost effective (as well as energy-consumption and heat-generation feasible) in a small footprint package.
An 24" Core 2 iMac coupled with external drives and Eye-TV does quite well right now, with the iMac being to present full 1080 mode (1920*1080) on its 1920*1200 screen. Many older 16*9 Plasmas don't even quality as HD, since their lower 1024*768 detail doesn't even do full justice to 720P HD (1280*720). That's one reason why LCD large screen TVs generally look better than Plasma.
Things will be changing rapidly as the US changeover to DTV takes place. For now I'm sticking with larger computer screens. I won't get a big flat-panel TV type display until they've gone to LED backlighting. It's awful how many of these big TVs are failing already. LED backlighting should avoid backlight degradation problems and the much needed energy consumption should make other components a bit more reliable too since the sets can be cooler running.
We should all be pressuring Congress to overhaul the F.C.C., and reverse the ownership rule changes, and also bring back days where a broadcaster had to commit to a maximum number of commercial minutes on license renewal/application.
Competition certainly has failed to keep the number of minutes down. Some "hour" shows in the 1960's were 51 minutes. Now we've got infomercials (all ad), and shows that are barely over 40 minutes of an hour. PVR users would be less apt to skip ads if there wasn't so much. While people may not be searching for 720P x264 on their favorite torrent sites because a 1 GB show is a pretty good sized download, they can still easily skip past ads on a HDPVR.
It's ironic that we're being forced into a wonderful digital TV system in an era when there are so many commercials on TV that broadcasters rarely try to run movies anymore.
I'm grateful for PBS.
Freddie Geier
There's already strong links between Apple and ElGato. Interestingly, Apple hired Elgato CEO Freddie Geier (lovely man) in 2005 to become MD of Apple Germany.
I'm sorry, but I kind of
I'm sorry, but I kind of doubt that adding dvr to the apple tv is what apple really wants to do. they want you to buy shit from their store not record it.
Oh really?
I've yet to meet anyone that even owns an Apple TV box. In fact, rarely do I encounter anyone that's even heard of it. Guess they might wanna start spending a little more on advertising.
This Wu guy has been so
This Wu guy has been so wrong so many times. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to combine my tivo and apple-tv into one device. I'm not holding my breath though.
Agreed about his
Agreed about his acuracy....but since we agree with his opinions every once in awhile...
Wu's track record
He's one of the worst analysts I've ever seen. Too promotional, not enough substance or objectivity.
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Would apple be able link in
Would apple be able link in itunes for people to dl/stream watch movies?
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